Crash games, worked out: the curve, the odds and the law
A crash round is a number that climbs from 1x until it stops. This site explains what decides where it stops, how often each cash-out target is reached, why no app can see the result early, and what the Gambling Control Act, 2025 asks of anyone who offers the game in Kenya.
- 97%the Return to Player that Spribe states for Aviator on its own game pagespribe.co/games/aviator, read 28 October 2026
- 48.5%of rounds reach 2x under the standard model at that RTP: fewer than halfIllustrative example: 0.97 divided by 2
- KES 3lost on average per KES 100 staked, whatever auto cash-out you setIllustrative example: 100 x (1 - 0.97)
How to use this site
See what a round is
Bets go in before the multiplier starts, the number rises from 1x, and the stopping point comes from the game's random number generator, not from anything on your screen. How a crash round works walks through one round.
Put your own target in the calculator
Enter the RTP from the game's rules and the cash-out you have in mind. The multiplier calculator shows how often that target is reached and what it costs over many rounds.
Test any promise of a prediction
A result drawn on the game server cannot be read by an app on your phone. Why predictor apps are scams follows the money they take.
Know the law and your limits
Only a licensee may offer the game (s.28(1) of the Act), and L.N. 112 r.84 makes every online licensee give you deposit, loss and session limits. Help, limits and self-exclusion.
Guides by question
- 3guidesHow crash games work
The round, the curve, the cash-out and what the server decides.
- 4guidesThe maths
RTP, the probability of a multiplier and the expected value of a cash-out.
- 2guidesPredictors and scams
Predictor apps, signal groups and hacks: why they cannot work and how they take money.
- 2guidesProvably fair
Seeds, hashes and how to verify a round yourself.
- 2guidesLaw and safety in Kenya
Licences, age, limits and where to get help.
- 2guidesCrash words
Short definitions of the words on a crash game screen.
What you will not find here
Rankings or reviews
No best-site lists, no scores, no star ratings. This site compares no operators and never suggests where to play.
Bonuses or promo codes
No welcome offers, free bets or codes. The 2026 Advertising Regulations bar gambling adverts with a call to action or that present gambling as income (L.N. 114 r.9), and this site runs no adverts at all.
Operator links
Where an operator's domain appears, it is plain text. Advertising gambling needs the Authority's approval under s.87(1) of the Act, and this site holds no such approval.
What the curve shows
The curve near the top of this page is drawn from one formula. In the standard crash model, the share of rounds that reach a multiplier m equals the game's RTP divided by m. Spribe does not publish the distribution behind Aviator, so this site labels every such figure as the standard model rather than as the provider's own numbers.
Illustrative example at 97% RTP: 1.5x is reached in 64.7% of rounds, 2x in 48.5%, 3x in 32.3%, 5x in 19.4% and 10x in 9.7%. Double the target and the chance halves. Nothing on the screen, including the list of recent results, changes those shares for the next round.
Why every target costs the same
Illustrative example: stake KES 100 on each of 100 rounds with auto cash-out at 2x. On average 48.5 of those rounds reach 2x and pay KES 200 each, which is KES 9,700 back from KES 10,000 staked. Move the target to 10x and on average 9.7 rounds pay KES 1,000 each: again KES 9,700.
The target decides how often you are paid and how wide the swings are. It does not decide the average, which stays at the RTP. That is the single most useful fact about crash games, and the calculator lets you check it for any target.
How these pages are made
Pages are drafted with AI tools, tied to named primary sources, and published only after automated checks pass. The editorial policy lists those checks, and the about page explains who is behind the site and what is not yet published.
Questions people ask first
Can a crash game be offered legally in Kenya?
Only by a licensee. Section 28(1) of the Gambling Control Act, 2025 bars any gambling activity that is not licensed under the Act, and s.67(1) lists the online casino licence among the three online licence types. The Authority publishes its list of licensed gaming companies at gra.go.ke/licensed-operators/.
Can any app tell me where the next round will crash?
No. The result is set on the game server, and L.N. 112 r.45(2) requires the random number generator of every game of chance to be certified by the Authority or its approved agent. An app on your phone sees only what your screen sees. Why predictor apps are scams explains how they take money and data.
What does a 97% RTP mean for one evening of play?
Very little on its own. RTP is an average over a very large number of rounds: KES 97 returned for every KES 100 staked. One session can finish well above or well below that. Illustrative example: 50 rounds at KES 100 cost KES 150 on average, but the actual result of those 50 rounds can be far from it in either direction.
How old do you have to be to play?
Operators must see proof of the age of majority before registering a player (s.72(3) of the Act), and the age of majority in Kenya is eighteen. The 2026 Conduct of Gambling Operations Regulations (L.N. 112 r.92) bar persons under eighteen from gambling and from gambling promotions.
Where can I get help if play is getting out of hand?
Call the regulator's toll-free line, 0800-723-770, as shown on the regulator's website. You can also apply to the Authority to self-exclude on Form 1 under L.N. 112 r.70(1). The help page sets out every step.
18+ Gambling is addictive. Play responsibly. Crash games are for adults of the age of majority, which in Kenya is eighteen. Rounds are short and follow each other quickly, so losses can build fast; if that is happening to you, the help page has the regulator's toll-free line and the self-exclusion steps.